`Old economy' stocks will weather the impending U.S.
financial storm because of their global reach
The Star
Feb 16, 2008 04:30 AM David
Olive
BUSINESS COLUMNIST
The coming year or two is shaping up as a tale of two
global economies. One is characterized by slow and
possibly "negative" growth in mature industrial nations,
the other by continued dynamic gross domestic product
growth in emerging-world economies.
In 2007, for the first time in history, China, India
and Russia together accounted for more than half of
global economic growth.
The International Monetary Fund, or IMF, declared in
its latest world economic forecast that China alone "is
now the single most important contributor to world
growth."
So how does an investor with all of his or her chips
placed on a sluggish North American economy participate
in a Chinese industrial revolution taking place at
lightning speed?
The risks can be daunting. Investors in recently
"privatized" Russian, Chinese and Indian companies
usually find themselves in partnership with the Kremlin
or a state entity that has retained majority control of
the business.
And the lack of transparency and accounting lapses
common to Western firms are even more pronounced in
high-growth jurisdictions such as Dubai, Central Europe,
Africa and Pakistan - which, for all its political
upheaval, can boast a torrid 7 per cent annual GDP
growth rate over the past several years.
There's a safe way to participate in the emergence of
this parallel global economy, often overlooked by
Western investors disappointed with the inconsistent
performance of emerging-market mutual funds. Neither
does it require the fortitude to invest directly in
Third World firms and suffer buyer's remorse when the
local currency abruptly implodes.
That safer approach is to focus on familiar,
blue-chip North American firms that derive an unusually
large share of their revenues from abroad. Think of it
as both a hedge against recessionary winds blowing from
the south, and a chance to profit from the world's
second industrial revolution. With U.S. consumer
confidence sinking, and U.S. corporate profit forecasts
dropping in tandem, "the real defensive kicker is on the
multinational side," Douglas Cohen, a managing director
in equities at Morgan Stanley Co., said at a
Forbes panel last month on stocks for weathering
the North American storm.
"If you look at some of the BRIC countries (Brazil,
Russia, India and China), some of the Mid-East countries
and other parts of Asia, there is very robust economic
growth. It may decelerate, but it's not going to
collapse."
The IMF predicts continued heady 2008 growth rates
for China (10 per cent), India (8.4 per cent) and Africa
(6.5 per cent), against dreary GDP growth rates for the
U.S. (1.9 per cent), Europe (2.1 per cent) and Japan
(1.7 per cent).
There's a bevy of companies that have been investing
heavily offshore for a decade or more with only slender
profits to show for it until recent years.
"All that stuff that people hated about GE over the
last seven years, when the stock didn't go anywhere,
they're starting to love it now," Shawn Campbell, who
manages a $100 million (U.S.) fund at Chicago's Campbell
Asset Management, told Reuters, explaining his bets on
General Electric Co. and global farm-equipment-maker
Deere & Co.
The Star's portfolio of 12 emerging-market
plays is weighted to large firms with substantial,
stable operations in North America, that also are
helping build the modern banking, energy,
transportation, computer-network and
consumer-product-distribution infrastructure of emerging
economies.
Each firm derives at least 30 per cent of its sales
from outside North America. Each posted a rise in
profits in a difficult 2007. And the shares of all but
one have outperformed the S&P/TSX 300 and S&P
500 indexes so far this year, indicating that an
investor "flight to quality" already is underway. Just
the same, with an average price-earnings multiple of
21.3, and varying from a high of 53.3 (Bombardier Inc.)
to a low of 11.4 (Whirlpool Corp.), these "old economy"
stocks are still trading at reasonable prices.
Here's our Global Dozen, with yesterday's share price
and the usual caveat that excellent companies like Deere
have not made the list for reasons of space only.
Bank of Nova Scotia ($47.38 Canadian): The most
international of Canada's Big Five banks. It operates in
more than 40 countries outside Canada and the U.S. Over
the past five years, BNS stock has outperformed all but
Toronto Dominion Bank.
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. ($149.35): It's the
world's largest potash supplier, accounting for roughly
15 per cent of global production. Increasingly, its
output of fertilizers and related feed products is
shifting to developing-world markets where rising
incomes are bringing agricultural self-sufficiency
within reach.
Bombardier Inc. ($5.53): As the world's largest
rail-equipment maker, it supplies streetcars to Brussels
and monorails in Asia. And the former stock-market
darling, still recovering from the 2001-02 recession,
continues to fatten its order book for private planes,
despite the U.S. downturn, thanks to the recent
proliferation of Russian and Asian tycoons.
Boeing Co. ($85.18 U.S.): It has reclaimed from
French archrival Airbus SA the crown of world's biggest
maker of civilian airliners. Its flagship 787 Dreamliner
is in hot demand with Asian and Middle Eastern airlines,
while Airbus struggles to find buyers for it's A-380
superjumbo.
United Technologies Corp. ($71.53): It's the world
leader in elevators (Otis) and air conditioners
(Carrier), and with big stakes in aircraft engines
(Pratt & Whitney) and helicopters (Sikorsky), is a
low-key infrastructure supplier with outsized
performance, including a stock that bested the S&P
500 by a 2-to-1 ratio over the past five years, and
boosted profits by 91 per cent during that time. UTC is
largely insulated from the North America consumer
economy, and its rising offshore profits have
compensated for the U.S. housing meltdown.
Caterpillar Inc. ($69.95): Despite its exposure to
the troubled U.S. construction market, it is forecasting
a rise in 2008 profits of 5 per cent to 15 per cent.
Offshore orders for its heavy equipment, accounting for
half its total sales, have more than compensated for
softer sales growth at home.
General Electric Co. ($34.37): It now derives 50 per
cent of its sales of power-station generators,
locomotives, lighting supplies and medical equipment
from outside its home market.
Procter & Gamble Co. ($66.30): It long ago
transplanted its vaunted marketing prowess overseas, and
currently is threatening to push long-established rival
Unilever PLC to the margins in the booming Indian
market.
Coca-Cola Co. ($58.76): The cola giant, which once
insisted on peddling only Coke abroad, has learned
humility in recent years, building market share in the
Pacific Rim and South Asia by reformulating its soft
drinks and juice products to local tastes, and acquiring
dominant local beverage brands.
PepsiCo Inc. ($71.73): Same story as above, except
for PepsiCo's broader portfolio that includes Frito-Lay
snacks, Quaker Foods and Gatorade sports drinks, all
winning favour in non-North American markets.
International Business Machines Corp. ($106.16): It
generated 65 per cent of fourth-quarter 2007 sales from
outside its homeland and retains its near-monopoly on
mainframe computers. These are much in demand from
emerging-economy governments and corporations upgrading
their computer networks. Lucrative contracts to service
its equipment will further entrench IBM in its newest
markets.
Whirlpool Corp. ($88.49): The world's largest
appliance maker (Maytag, KitchenAid, Amana, Jenn-Air),
which we think of as a "household infrastructure" firm,
enjoyed a 2007 payoff from its assiduous studies of how
consumers in Mumbai, Singapore and Rio de Janeiro use
its products. (For instance, washing machines are stored
in the small kitchens of Russian and Central European
households, and must be small enough to tuck under the
kitchen counter.) In 2007, healthy overseas growth
compensated for the weakening North American demand.
Of the prospects for Western firms seeking growth in
emerging markets, money manager Cohen says: "The big
bellwether multinationals like United Technologies are
going to work. General Electric would be another one
that I think will finally have its day here."
Adding PepsiCo to his list, Cohen said: "Those are
all companies that are trading at, or below, a market
multiple and have good dividend yields. So those are
some of the stocks I want to own."
Are those firms "keepers"? The kind you can safely
stow in your safe deposit box and forget about? Or will
there come a time to dump them when the infrastructure
project in the developing world is completed?
We picked infrastructure firms with substantial North
American operations not only for their superior
governance, but for the long-term prospects of
infrastructure worldwide.
When these firms get done modernizing the rail
networks of India, equipping Chinese hospitals with MRI
machines, and making Doritos available in every Karachi
convenience store - and perhaps even before that, if
we're lucky - there's an estimated $123 billion
(Canadian) "infrastructure gap" in Canada's
municipalities that needs attention. And a similar gap
estimated at $3.5 trillion (U.S.) in America, according
to the Urban Development think tank in Washington.
At least for investors, infrastructure is becoming
one of the most glamorous of four-syllable words.
David Olive is a Toronto Star business columnist. He
can be reached by email at
dolive@thestar.ca.